National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2024.

DISCLAIMER: In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2024 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2024 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, endocrine drugs, generics, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2024 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2023, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the US grew 13.6% compared to 2022, for a total of $722.5 billion. Utilization (a 6.5% increase), new drugs (a 4.2% increase) and price (a 2.9% increase) drove this increase. Semaglutide was the top drug in 2023, followed by adalimumab and apixaban. Drug expenditures were $37.1 billion (a 1.1% decrease) and $135.7 billion (a 15.0% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, increased utilization drove growth, with a small impact from price and new products. In nonfederal hospitals, a drop in utilization led the decrease in expenditures, with price and new drugs modestly contributing to growth in spending. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2024. Specialty, endocrine, and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2024, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 10.0% to 12.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate an 11.0% to 13.0% increase and a 0% to 2.0% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Projected prescription drug expenditures in 2024: Looking ahead to the inflation reduction era.

In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time.

The Incidence, Mortality and Medical Expenditure in Patients with Asthma in Taiwan: Ten-year Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND: This study examines incidence, mortality, medical expenditure and prescription patterns for asthma on a national scale, particularly in Asian countries for asthma is limited. Our aim is to investigate incidence, mortality, prescription patterns and provide a comprehensive overview of healthcare utilization trends for asthma from 2009 to 2018. METHODS: We included patients diagnosed with asthma between 2009 and 2018. We excluded patients with missing demographic data. Our analysis covered comorbidities, including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, allergic rhinitis, eczema, atopic dermatitis, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease, chronic hepatitis, stroke, and cancer. Investigated medications comprised oral and intravenous steroids, short-acting beta-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), combinations of ICS and long-acting beta-agonists, long-acting muscarinic antagonists, and leukotriene receptor antagonists montelukast. We also assessed the number of outpatient visits, emergency visits, and hospitalizations per year, as well as the average length of hospitalization and average medical costs. RESULTS: The study included a final count of 88,244 subjects from 1,998,311 randomly selected samples between 2000 and 2019. Over the past decade, there was a gradual decline in newly diagnosed asthma patients per year, from 10,140 to 6,487. The mean age annually increased from 47.59 in 2009 to 53.41 in 2018. Over 55% of the patients were female. Eczema was diagnosed in over 55% of the patients. Around 90% of the patients used oral steroids, with a peak of 97.29% in 2018, while the usage of ICS varied between 86.20% and 91.75%. Intravenous steroids use rose from 40.94% in 2009 to 54.14% in 2018. The average annual hospital stay ranged from 9 to 12 days, with a maximum of 12.26 days in 2013. Lastly, the average medical expenses per year ranged from New Taiwan dollars 5558 to 7921. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, both asthma incidence and all-cause mortality rates decreased in Taiwan from 2009 to 2018. Further analysis of medical expenses in patients with asthma who required multiple hospitalizations annually revealed an increase in outpatient and emergency visits and hospitalizations, along with longer hospital stays and higher medical costs.

Patient Satisfaction With the Health Care Services of a Government-Financed Health Protection Scheme in Bangladesh: Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2016, the government of Bangladesh has been piloting a health protection scheme known as Shasthyo Surokhsha Karmasuchi (SSK), which specifically targets households living below the poverty line. This noncontributory scheme provides enrolled households access to inpatient health care services for 78 disease groups. Understanding patients' experiences with health care utilization from the pilot SSK scheme is important for enhancing the quality of health care service delivery during the national-level scale-up of the scheme. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate patient satisfaction with the health care services provided under the pilot health protection scheme in Bangladesh. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with the users of the SSK scheme from August to November 2019. Patients who had spent a minimum of 2 nights at health care facilities were selected for face-to-face exit interviews. During these interviews, we collected information on patients' socioeconomic characteristics, care-seeking experiences, and level of satisfaction with various aspects of health care service delivery. To measure satisfaction, we employed a 5-point Likert scale (very satisfied, 5; satisfied, 4; neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, 3; dissatisfied, 2; very dissatisfied, 1). Descriptive statistics, statistical inferential tests (t-test and 1-way ANOVA), and linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: We found that 55.1% (241/438) of users were either very satisfied or satisfied with the health care services of the SSK scheme. The most satisfactory indicators were related to privacy maintained during diagnostic tests (mean 3.91, SD 0.64), physicians' behaviors (mean 3.86, SD 0.77), services provided at the registration booth (mean 3.86, SD 0.62), confidentiality maintained regarding diseases (mean 3.78, SD 0.72), and nurses' behaviors (mean 3.60, SD 0.83). Poor satisfaction was identified in the interaction of patients with providers about illness-related information (mean 2.14, SD 1.40), availability of drinking water (mean 1.46, SD 0.76), cleanliness of toilets (mean 2.85, SD 1.04), and cleanliness of the waiting room (mean 2.92, SD 1.09). Patient satisfaction significantly decreased by 0.20 points for registration times of 16-30 minutes and by 0.32 points for registration times of >30 minutes compared with registration times of ≤15 minutes. Similarly, patient satisfaction significantly decreased with an increase in the waiting time to obtain services. However, the satisfaction of users significantly increased if they received a complete course of medicines and all prescribed diagnostic services. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the users were satisfied with the services provided under the SSK scheme. However, there is scope for improving user satisfaction. To improve the satisfaction level, the SSK scheme implementation authorities should pay attention to reducing the registration time and waiting time to obtain services and improving the availability of drugs and prescribed diagnostic services. The authorities should also ensure the supply of drinking water and enhance the cleanliness of the facility.

The coefficient of conformism of a correlative prediction (CCCP): Building up reliable nano-QSPRs/QSARs for endpoints of nanoparticles in different experimental conditions encoded via quasi-SMILES.

Simulation of the physicochemical and biochemical behavior of nanomaterials has its own specifics. However, the main goal of modeling for both traditional substances and nanomaterials is the same. This is an ecologic risk assessment. The universal indicator of toxicity is the n-octanol/water partition coefficient. Mutagenicity indicates the possibility of future undesirable environmental effects, possibly greater than toxicity. Models have been proposed for the octanol/water distribution coefficient of gold nanoparticles and the mutagenicity of silver nanoparticles. Unlike the previous studies, here the models are built using an updated scheme, which includes two improvements. Firstly, the computing involves a new criterion for prediction potential, the so-called coefficient of conformism of a correlative prediction (CCCP); secondly, the Las Vegas algorithm is used to select the potentially most promising models from a group of models obtained by the Monte Carlo algorithm. Apparently, CCCP is a measure of the predictive potential (not only correlation). This can give an advantage in developing a model in comparison to using the classic determination coefficient. Likely, CCCP can be more informative than the classical determination coefficient. The Las Vegas algorithm is able to improve the model obtained by the Monte Carlo method.

Frequency of diabetic remission, predictors of remission and survival in cats using a low-cost, moderate-intensity, home-monitoring protocol and twice-daily glargine.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to retrospectively assess remission rates and survival in diabetic cats managed using a moderate-intensity, low-cost protocol of home blood glucose measurements and insulin adjustment by clients of a cat-only practice, and to determine if predictors of remission, relapse or survival could be identified. METHODS: The records of a cat-only practice were used to identify 174 cats with newly diagnosed diabetes managed using only pre-insulin home blood glucose measurements for insulin dose adjustments based on a protocol provided to clients aimed at maintaining pre-insulin blood glucose in the range of 6.5-11.9 mmol/l (117-214 mg/dl). Cats were excluded for the following reasons: insufficient follow-up in the records; a lack of owner compliance was recorded; they were receiving ongoing corticosteroids for the management of other conditions; they were euthanased at the time of diagnosis; or they were diagnosed with acromegaly or hyperadrenocorticism. RESULTS: Using only pre-insulin blood glucose measurements at home to adjust the insulin dose to maintain glucose in the range of 6.5-11.9 mmol/l, 47% of cats achieved remission, but 40% of those cats relapsed. A minority (16%) of cats were hospitalised for hypoglycaemia. The survival time was significantly longer in cats in remission and Burmese cats. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The cost and time burden of treating diabetic cats may cause some clients to choose euthanasia over treatment. While the highest rates of diabetic remission have been reported in studies of newly diagnosed cats treated with intensive long-acting insulin protocols and low carbohydrate diets, these protocols may not be suitable for all clients. Nearly 50% of cats with newly diagnosed diabetes achieved remission with this low-cost, moderate-intensity, insulin dosing protocol. As remission was significantly associated with survival time, discussing factors in treatment to optimise remission is important, but it is also important to offer clients a spectrum of options. No cats that started treatment in this study were euthanased because the owner did not wish to continue the diabetes treatment.

Financial Stressors for Parents of Children and Emerging Adults With Congenital Heart Disease: A Qualitative Study.

INTRODUCTION: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most prevalent congenital disability globally. This study aimed to describe parents' perspectives on financial stressors related to having a child with CHD using a descriptive qualitative approach. METHOD: Qualitative data were obtained from parents of children with CHD in a cross-sectional web-based survey study. Iterative data analysis was used to develop essential themes that enabled a rich description of 147 parents' perspectives. RESULTS: Parents identified five financial stressors: perpetual worries about health insurance, facing the dilemma of "making too much money," struggling to balance work, worrying over having an emerging adult with CHD, and constant constraints because of financial needs. DISCUSSION: As experts in pediatric care, pediatric advanced practice providers need to work with policymakers to provide further financial assistance and sufficient insurance coverage for families that struggle to balance finances for the whole family and children with CHD.

Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Screening in Emergency Departments: Results From the Pragmatic Randomized HIV Testing Using Enhanced Screening Techniques in Emergency Departments Trial.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Identification of HIV remains a critical health priority for which emergency departments (EDs) are a central focus. The comparative cost-effectiveness of various HIV screening strategies in EDs remains largely unknown. The goal of this study was to compare programmatic costs and cost-effectiveness of nontargeted and 2 forms of targeted opt-out HIV screening in EDs using results from a multicenter, pragmatic randomized clinical trial. METHODS: This economic evaluation was nested in the HIV Testing Using Enhanced Screening Techniques in Emergency Departments (TESTED) trial, a multicenter pragmatic clinical trial of different ED-based HIV screening strategies conducted from April 2014 through January 2016. Patients aged 16 years or older, with normal mental status and not critically ill, or not known to be living with HIV were randomized to 1 of 3 HIV opt-out screening approaches, including nontargeted, enhanced targeted, or traditional targeted, across 4 urban EDs in the United States. Each screening method was fully integrated into routine emergency care. Direct programmatic costs were determined using actual trial results, and time-motion assessment was used to estimate personnel activity costs. The primary outcome was newly diagnosed HIV. Total annualized ED programmatic costs by screening approach were calculated using dollars adjusted to 2023 as were costs per patient newly diagnosed with HIV. One-way and multiway sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The trial randomized 76,561 patient visits, resulting in 14,405 completed HIV tests, and 24 (0.2%) new diagnoses. Total annualized new diagnoses were 12.9, and total annualized costs for nontargeted, enhanced targeted, and traditional targeted screening were $111,861, $88,629, and $70,599, respectively. Within screening methods, costs per new HIV diagnoses were $20,809, $23,554, and $18,762, respectively. Enhanced targeted screening incurred higher costs but with similar annualized new cases detected compared with traditional targeted screening. Nontargeted screening yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,586 when compared with traditional targeted screening. Results were most sensitive to HIV prevalence and costs of HIV tests. CONCLUSION: Nontargeted HIV screening was more costly than targeted screening largely due to an increased number of HIV tests performed. Each HIV screening strategy had similar within-strategy costs per new HIV diagnosis with traditional targeted screening yielding the lowest cost per new diagnosis. For settings with budget constraints or very low HIV prevalences, the traditional targeted approach may be preferred; however, given only a slightly higher cost per new HIV diagnosis, ED settings looking to detect the most new cases may prefer nontargeted screening.

Everyday amnesia: Residual memory for high confidence misses and implications for decision models of recognition.

Despite studying a list of items only minutes earlier, when reencountered in a recognition memory test, undergraduate participants often say with total confidence that they have not studied some of the items before. Such high confidence miss (HCM) responses have been taken as evidence of rapid and complete forgetting and of everyday amnesia (Roediger & Tekin, 2020). We investigated (a) if memory for HCMs is completely lost or whether a residual memory effect exists and (b) whether dominant decision models predict the effect. Participants studied faces (Experiments 1a, 2, and 3) or words (Experiment 1b), then completed a single-item recognition memory task, followed by either (a) a two-alternative forced-choice recognition task, in which the studied and nonstudied alternatives on each trial were matched for their previous old/new decision and confidence rating (Experiments 1 and 2) or (b) a second single-item recognition task in which the targets and foils were HCMs and high confidence correct rejections, respectively (Experiment 3). In each experiment, participants reliably distinguished HCMs from high-confidence correct rejections. The unequal variance signal detection and dual-process signal detection models were fit to the single-item recognition data, and the parameter estimates were used to predict the memory effect for HCMs. The dual-process signal detection model predicted the residual memory effect (as did another popular model, the mixture signal detection theory model). However, the unequal variance signal detection model incorrectly predicted a negative, or no, effect, invalidating this model. The residual memory effect for HCMs demonstrates that everyday amnesia is not associated with complete memory loss and distinguishes between decision models. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Pharmacological Treatment for Adult Kidney Transplant Recipients in Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate cost-effective pharmacological treatment in adult kidney transplant recipients from the perspective of the Colombian health system. METHODS: A decision tree model for the induction phase and a Markov model for the maintenance phase were built. A review of the clinical literature was conducted to extract probabilities, and the life-years were used as the outcome. Costs were calculated using the administrative databases. The evaluating treatment schemes are organized by groups of evidence with direct comparisons. RESULTS: In the induction phase, anti-thymocyte immunoglobulin+ methylprednisolone is dominant, more effective, and less expensive, compared with basiliximab+methylprednisolone. In the maintenance phase, azathioprine (AZA) is dominant in contrast to mycophenolate mofetil (MFM) both with cyclosporine (CIC)+ corticosteroids (CE); CIC is dominant relative to sirolimus (SIR) and tacrolimus (TAC) (both with MFM+CE or AZA+CE), and TAC is dominant compared with SIR (in addition with MFM+CE or mycophenolate sodium [MFS]+CE); MFM is dominant in relation to MFS and everolimus, and SIR is more effective MFM but it does not exceed the threshold (in sum with TAC+CE); MFS and MFM are dominant relative to everolimus, and SIR is more effective than MFM, but it does not exceed the threshold (in addiction with CIC+CE); MFM is dominant in relation to TAC (in sum with SIR+CE), and CIC+AZA+CE is dominant in relation to TAC+MFM+CE. CONCLUSIONS: The base-case results for all evidence groups are consistent with the different sensitivity analyses.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Triptorelin, Goserelin, and Leuprolide in the Treatment of Patients with Metastatic Prostate Cancer: A Societal Perspective.

OBJECTIVES: Metastatic prostate cancer is the most common malignant cancer and the second leading cause of death due to various types of cancer among men after lung cancer. This study aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of triptorelin, goserelin, and leuprolide in the treatment of the patients with metastatic prostate cancer from the societal perspective in Iran in 2020. METHODS: This is a cost-effectiveness study in which a 20-year Markov transition modeling was applied. In this study, local cost and quality-of-life data of each health state were gathered from cohort of patients. The TreeAge pro 2020 and Microsoft Excel 2016 software were used to simulate cost-effectiveness of each treatment in the long term. The one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed to measure robustness of the model outputs. RESULTS: The findings indicated that the mean costs and utility gained over a 20-year horizon for goserelin, triptorelin, and leuprolide treatments were $ 13 539.13 and 6.365 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), $ 18 124.75 and 6.658 QALY, and $ 26 006.92 and 6.856 QALY, respectively. Goserelin was considered as a superior treatment option, given the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the study outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: According to the results of the present study, goserelin was the most effective and cost-effective strategy versus 2 other options. It could be recommended to policy makers of the Iran healthcare system to prioritize it in clinical guidelines and reimbursement policies.

Cost-effective evaluation of Aptamer candidates in SELEX-based Aptamer isolation.

Aptamers are short, single-stranded nucleic acids with high affinity and specificity for various targets, making them valuable in diagnostics and therapeutics. Their isolation traditionally involves a time-consuming and costly process called SELEX. While SELEX methods have evolved to improve binding and amplification, the crucial step of aptamer identification from sequencing data remains expensive and often overlooked. Common identification methods require modification of aptamer candidates with labels like biotin or fluorescent dyes, which becomes costly and cumbersome for high-throughput sequencing data. This paper presents an efficient and cost-effective approach to streamline aptamer identification. It employs asymmetric polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to generate modified single-stranded DNA copies of aptamer candidates, simplifying the modification process. By using excess modified forward primers and limited reverse primers, this method reduces costs since only unmodified candidates need to be synthesized initially. The approach was demonstrated with an IgE protein aptamer and successfully applied to identify aptamers from a pool of 12 candidates against a monoclonal antibody. The validity of the results was further confirmed through the direct synthesis of fluorophore-conjugated aptamer candidates, yielding consistent outcomes while reducing the cost by threefold. This approach addresses a critical bottleneck in aptamer discovery by significantly reducing the time and cost associated with aptamer identification, facilitating aptamer-based research and making aptamers more accessible for various applications in diagnostics and therapeutics.

Assessing the Variation and Drivers of Cost in 1-Level Lumbar Fusion: A Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Analysis.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: As value-based health care arrangements gain traction in spine care, understanding the true cost of care becomes critical. Historically, inaccurate cost proxies have been used, including negotiated reimbursement rates or list prices. However, time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) allows for a more accurate cost assessment, including a better understanding of the primary drivers of cost in 1-level lumbar fusion. PURPOSE: To determine the variation of total hospital cost, differences in characteristics between high-cost and non-high-cost patients, and to identify the primary drivers of total hospital cost in a sample of patients undergoing 1-level lumbar fusion. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Retrospective, multicenter (one academic medical center, one community-based hospital), observational study. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 383 patients undergoing elective 1-level lumbar fusion for degenerative spine conditions between November 2, 2021 and December 2, 2022. OUTCOME MEASURES: Total hospital cost of care (normalized); preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative cost of care (normalized); ratio of most to least expensive 1-level lumbar fusion. METHODS: Patients undergoing a 1-level lumbar fusion between November 2, 2021 and December 2, 2022 were identified at two hospitals (one quaternary referral academic medical center and one community-based hospital) within our health system. TDABC was used to calculate total hospital cost, which was also broken up into: pre-, intra-, and postoperative timeframes. Operating surgeon and patient characteristics were also collected and compared between high- and non-high-cost patients. The correlation of surgical time and cost was determined. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine factors associated with total hospital cost. RESULTS: The most expensive 1-level lumbar fusion was 6.8x more expensive than the least expensive 1-level lumbar fusion, with the intraoperative period accounting for 88% of total cost. On average. the implant cost accounted for 30% of the total, but across the patient sample, the implant cost accounted for a range of 6% to 44% of the total cost. High-cost patients were younger (55 years [SD: 13 years] vs.63 years [SD: 13 years], p=0.0002), more likely to have commercial health insurance (24 out of 38 (63%) vs. 181 out of 345 (52%), p=0.003). There was a poor correlation between time of surgery (i.e., incision to close) and total overall cost (ρ: 0.26, p<0.0001). Increase age (RC: -0.003 [95% CI: -0.006 to -0.000007], p=0.049) was associated with decreased cost. Surgery by certain surgeons was associated with decreased total cost when accounting for other factors (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A large variation exists in the total hospital cost for patients undergoing 1-level lumbar fusion, which is primarily driven by surgeon-level decisions and preferences (e.g., implant and technology use). Also, being a "fast" surgeon intraoperatively does not mean your total cost is meaningfully lower. As efforts continue to optimize patient value through ensuring appropriate clinical outcomes while also reducing cost, spine surgeons must use this knowledge to lead, or at least be active participants in, any discussions that could impact patient care.

Prevalence, mortality, cost, and disparities in transcatheter mitral valve repair and replacement in cancer patients: Artificial intelligence and propensity score national 5-year analysis of 7495 procedures.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted the first comprehensive evaluation of the therapeutic value and safety profile of transcatheter mitral edge-to-edge repair (TEER) and transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) in individuals concurrently afflicted with cancer. METHODS: Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) dataset, we analyzed all adult hospitalizations between 2016 and 2020 (n = 148,755,036). The inclusion criteria for this retrospectively analyzed prospective cohort study were all adult hospitalizations (age 18 years and older). Regression and machine learning analyses in addition to model optimization were conducted using ML-PSr (Machine Learning-augmented Propensity Score adjusted multivariable regression) and BAyesian Machine learning-augmented Propensity Score (BAM-PS) multivariable regression. RESULTS: Of all adult hospitalizations, there were 5790 (0.004%) TMVRs and 1705 (0.001%) TEERs. Of the total TMVRs, 160 (2.76%) were done in active cancer. Of the total TEERs, 30 (1.76%) were done in active cancer. After the comparable rates of TEER/TMVR in active cancer in 2016, the prevalence of TEER/TMVR was significantly less in active cancer from 2017 to 2020 (2.61% versus 7.28% p < 0.001). From 2017 to 2020, active cancer significantly decreased the odds of receiving TEER or TMVR (OR 0.28, 95%CI 0.13-0.68, p = 0.008). In patients with active cancer who underwent TMVR/TEER, there were no significant differences in socio-economic disparities, mortality or total hospitalization costs. CONCLUSION: The presence of malignancy does not contribute to increased mortality, length of stay or procedural costs in TMVR or TEER. Whereas the prevalence of TMVR has increased in patients with active cancer, the utilization of TEER in the context of active cancer is declining despite a growing patient population.

MRI and 18F-FET PET for Multimodal Treatment Monitoring in Patients with Brain Metastases: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PET using the radiolabeled amino acid O-(2-[18F]fluoroethyl)-l-tyrosine (18F-FET) has been shown to be of value for treatment monitoring in patients with brain metastases after multimodal therapy, especially in clinical situations with equivocal MRI findings. As medical procedures must be justified socioeconomically, we determined the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 18F-FET PET for treatment monitoring of multimodal therapy, including checkpoint inhibitors, targeted therapies, radiotherapy, and combinations thereof in patients with brain metastases secondary to melanoma or non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: We analyzed already-published clinical data and calculated the associated costs from the German statutory health insurance system perspective. Two clinical scenarios were considered: decision tree model 1 determined the effectiveness of 18F-FET PET alone for identifying treatment-related changes, that is, the probability of correctly identifying patients with treatment-related changes confirmed by neuropathology or clinicoradiographically using the Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology criteria for immunotherapy. The resulting cost-effectiveness ratio showed the cost for each correctly identified patient with treatment-related changes in whom MRI findings remained inconclusive. Decision tree model 2 calculated the effectiveness of both 18F-FET PET and MRI, that is, the probability of correctly identifying nonresponders to treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated to determine cost-effectiveness, that is, the cost for each additionally identified nonresponder by 18F-FET PET who would have remained undetected by MRI. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the results. Results: 18F-FET PET identified 94% of patients with treatment-related changes, resulting in €1,664.23 (€1.00 = $1.08 at time of writing) for each correctly identified patient. Nonresponders were correctly identified in 60% by MRI and in 80% by 18F-FET PET, resulting in €3,292.67 and €3,915.83 for each correctly identified nonresponder by MRI and 18F-FET PET, respectively. The cost to correctly identify 1 additional nonresponder by 18F-FET PET, who would have remained unidentified by MRI, was €5,785.30. Conclusion: Given the considerable annual cost of multimodal therapy, the integration of 18F-FET PET can potentially improve patient care while reducing costs.

Predicting maximum occlusal force and tongue pressure using decision tree analysis in patients diagnosed with head and neck tumors.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: Preserving and restoring oral functions, especially mastication and swallowing, is important to the quality of life of patients being treated for head and neck tumors. Studies that help predict maximum occlusal force and tongue pressure during prosthetic treatment, necessary for providing comprehensive, appropriate treatment and encouraging patient adherence and confidence are lacking. PURPOSE: The purpose of this clinical study was to develop a decision tree model for predicting maximum occlusal force and tongue pressure in patients diagnosed with head and neck tumors that could help both experienced and less experienced prosthodontists and oral surgeons optimize the treatment plan and support patient compliance and their quality of life. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 80 patients who had been treated for head and neck tumors were enrolled in the study. Their maximum occlusal force was measured using a pressure-sensitive film and tongue pressure using a tongue pressure measurement device. Data, including basic characteristics, were transferred to a comma separated values file, which was then imported into a statistical software package to produce a decision tree. The classification and regression tree method was used to construct a predictive model. RESULTS: The number of occlusal contacts associated with not wearing a prosthesis, flap reconstruction, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, the number of teeth present, age, tumor stage, and tumor type were found to be associated with maximum occlusal force, with a prediction accuracy of 96.3%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.99, sensitivity of 97%, and specificity of 94%. The number of occlusal contacts associated with wearing and not wearing a prosthesis, tumor stage, age, radiotherapy, and surgery type were found to be associated with tongue pressure, with a prediction accuracy of 96.3%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97, sensitivity of 97%, and specificity of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: The decision tree model can be an effective tool for the prediction of maximum occlusal force and tongue pressure in patients diagnosed with head and neck tumors, helping both experienced and less experienced prosthodontists and oral surgeons to provide early, appropriate, and necessary treatment before starting prosthetic treatment and helping patients with treatment compliance and communication with medical staff.